Each bar shows the market-implied probability that BTC will touch a given price level at any point during 2026 — derived from real-money contracts on Polymarket only; Kalshi was unavailable for this refresh.

Upside: "Will BTC reach ≥ $X before Dec 31, 2026?" — contract YES price = probability.
Downside: "Will BTC dip to ≤ $X before Dec 31, 2026?" — contract YES price = probability.
Vol: Total USD trading volume on that contract (higher = more reliable signal).
Dimmed bars: Contracts with <$100K volume — treat with caution.

Method: Contract prices → survival function S(x) → PAVA isotonic regression (monotonicity repair) → discrete PDF via negative first differences → normalize. Based on Fed FEDS 2026-010 (Diercks/Katz/Wright).

Interval weights normalize annual upside-touch probability differences within the quoted strike range. Mode and P10/P90 are conditional on that range, exclude both tails, and do not describe the year-end terminal price.